Track record
BacktestedEvery signal our model would have fired across each card's price history, scored by what actually happened next. A Snipeis a “hit” if price was higher 30 days later; a Sleep hits if price was lower.
Live track record
Out of sampleSnipes split by strategy · Value = into weakness · ↗ Trend = ride the winner
Value entries @14d
20.2%
32 cards · med -3.7% · avg -1.2%
Trend rides @14d
61.7%
337 cards · med +1.3% · avg +2.5%
Sleep @14d
67.9%
48 cards · med -2.9% · avg -1.8%
Value entries @30d
37.1%
19 cards · med -6% · avg +5.4%
Trend rides @30d
66.2%
260 cards · med +2.8% · avg +4.2%
Sleep @30d
62.3%
31 cards · med -8.6% · avg -0.8%
Counts are distinct cards, not daily snapshots. We show the median return next to the average, since one mispriced grail can swing an average. A card with no fresh sale near the horizon stays unscored rather than guessed. A resolved call is never revised. It reflects the prices available on the day it was scored, and later historical backfills do not change it.
Backtest in-sample · for reference
Headline figures are the high-conviction calls we actually promote: momentum and breakout entries and confirmed downtrends, above our confidence floor. The full per-signal breakdown, including the weaker reads we don't lead with, is in the table below.
High-conviction Snipe @ 30d
71%
2,302 of 3,258 · avg +10.7%
High-conviction Sleep @ 30d
51%
373 of 729 · avg +3.9%
Signals evaluated
4,552
as of 2026-08-24
By lens
By signal
Snipe signals are tagged by strategy · Value = into weakness · ↗ Trend = ride the winner
| Signal | Call | Hit rate | Avg return | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum BuildingTrend rides | Snipe | 73% | +11.3% | 2,292 |
| Healthy BreakoutTrend rides | Snipe | 62% | +8.1% | 1,040 |
| Downtrend · Sub-threshold | Sleep | 50% | +4.2% | 638 |
| Price Below AverageValue entries | Snipe | 42% | +3.6% | 281 |
| BreakoutTrend rides | Snipe | 48% | +9.8% | 140 |
| Sleep | Sleep | 64% | +1.8% | 88 |
| PullbackValue entries | Snipe | 54% | +21.0% | 70 |
How this is measured
For every card, we replay our model across its full price history: at each past date it sees only the prices up to that day (no look-ahead), exactly as it runs live. Each time it flagged a Snipe or a Sleep, we then look 30 days forward and check what price did.
A Snipe counts as a hit if the price was higher 30 days later; a Sleepcounts as a hit if it was lower. “Watch” calls aren't directional, so they're excluded. Buckets with fewer than 20 samples aren't shown.
This is an in-sample backtest (our current model measured against past prices), not a log of live, real-time calls. It shows how the model behaves on history; live forward results will differ.
Not financial advice. Snipe or Sleep is an informational tool. Signals are generated by an automated model from historical prices, may be inaccurate or out of date, and are not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Collectibles are volatile and can be illiquid; you may not be able to sell near a quoted price. Do your own research; you alone are responsible for your decisions. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sourced in partnership with TCGPlayer, eBay, or The Pokémon Company.